Early Signals from July 2025 Bar Exam Results
- Tommy Sangchompuphen
- Sep 9
- 2 min read
The National Conference of Bar Examiners has begun releasing first-time bar passage rates for jurisdictions that have reported July 2025 results, and the early numbers provide an interesting—if incomplete—snapshot. We now have data from seven jurisdictions, and the picture is ... mixed.
Compared to July 2024, three jurisdictions saw increases, while four experienced declines. Despite those swings, the overall average across these seven jurisdictions remains exactly the same: 81.14%. That equilibrium is striking. It suggests movement underneath the surface without a clear directional trend.
At least, not yet.
Here’s what the early breakdown looks like:
Increases: North Carolina (+6%), West Virginia (+6%), and North Dakota (+1%)
Decreases: Iowa (-4%), Nebraska (-5%), New Mexico (-2%), South Dakota (-2%)
What This Means (and Doesn’t Mean Yet)
One might have expected higher first-time pass rates this summer because the NCBE reported that the scaled mean was higher for the July 2025 MBE. Typically, when the scaled mean rises, jurisdictions benefit with overall passage improvements. But this first batch of results doesn’t show that trend.
Again, at least, not yet.
There are a few possibilities to consider:
Timing: Only a fraction of jurisdictions have released results. The story could shift significantly as larger states publish their numbers.
Variation: Smaller jurisdictions can experience larger swings due to the relatively small number of test takers.
Balancing Effect: The increases and decreases we’ve seen so far are nearly offsetting, keeping the average flat.
Yes, I know, it's early, and we shouldn’t draw sweeping conclusions from these seven jurisdictions alone. But the data does remind us of something important about the bar exam: While national trends matter, individual state results often tell their own stories. A higher scaled mean suggests that many jurisdictions should see gains. But whether that holds across the country will only be clear once more results come in.
